CANADA’S LUMBER MOVE SHOCKED WASHINGTON — HERE’S WHY PEOPLE ARE WORRIED

Canada’s response to U.S. lumber tariffs has quietly triggered one of the most disruptive shifts in North American housing markets in decades. When steep duties on Canadian softwood lumber were imposed under Donald Trump, some reaching nearly 47%, Washington expected Canadian producers to slash prices or retreat. Instead, Ottawa chose a far more consequential path—one that is now sending shockwaves through American homebuilding, affordability, and supply chains.

Rather than negotiating concessions, Canada rebuilt its lumber industry around domestic resilience. Under Prime Minister Mark Carney, a sweeping restructuring plan redirected the sector away from U.S. dependence. Federal procurement rules now require Canadian wood for public housing, infrastructure, and military projects, even when imports are cheaper. At the same time, the Business Development Bank of Canada and provincial governments rolled out billions in low-interest loans, infrastructure funding, and modernization support, ensuring surviving mills had guaranteed demand at home.

The transition was painful. Dozens of mills closed, thousands of workers were laid off, and production temporarily stalled. But the companies that remained emerged leaner, technologically upgraded, and no longer forced to chase U.S. buyers burdened by tariffs. With domestic demand locked in and loans flowing back into pricing structures, Canadian lumber now sells at higher, more stable margins—making exports to the United States economically unattractive.

For the U.S., the consequences are immediate and structural. America consumes far more lumber than it produces, relying on Canada to fill a massive annual supply gap. That gap is no longer being filled. Lumber once destined for U.S. builders is now flowing into Canadian projects, Europe, and Asia. Prices have surged, with framing lumber spiking sharply and forecasts suggesting elevated levels could persist for years. Builders cannot absorb those costs, so home prices rise, projects slow, and housing shortages deepen.

This is where policy collides with everyday life. Higher lumber, steel, and aluminum costs add tens of thousands of dollars to the price of a typical home, pushing first-time buyers out of the market and reshaping how families live. According to nonpartisan research, tariffs have quietly increased household costs by over a thousand dollars per year, functioning as one of the largest hidden tax increases in decades. Housing is where that pressure becomes most visible—and most damaging.

The irony is hard to ignore. Tariffs meant to protect U.S. industry have accelerated Canadian independence, diversified its exports, and stabilized its domestic market, while American households shoulder higher prices and reduced housing supply. Even if tariffs were lifted tomorrow, the lost Canadian volume is unlikely to return. Long-term contracts, new trade routes, and modernized mills have changed the equation permanently. What began as a trade dispute has evolved into a lasting shift in North American housing economics—and the people paying the price are not governments, but families.