Canada’s Submarine Gamble Signals a Strategic Break From Washington

GOJE ISLAND, South Korea — The question seemed harmless at first. A reporter asked Prime Minister Mark Carney what Canada must do to “get things back on track.” Cameras clicked. The lights buzzed. Carney paused, then replied with an unusual bluntness: “Canada lied. What they did was terrible. We needed tariffs for national security and they turned it around. They’re getting hurt by tariffs and we’re gaining by tariffs.”

The remark, pointed and unexpected, hinted at a deeper realignment already underway — one involving trade tensions, shifting alliances, and a dramatic rethinking of Canada’s long-standing dependence on the United States.

For decades, Washington and Ottawa have operated in near lockstep, their economies intertwined and their defense policies tightly aligned. But the last several years of tariff escalations — including sweeping U.S. duties on Canadian metals, industrial components, and automotive goods — have quietly eroded that stability. Canada’s retaliatory measures, designed to minimize domestic harm while signaling displeasure, marked the beginning of a slow but perceptible drift.

That drift became unmistakable this week.

While the world’s political attention centered on the APEC Summit in Seoul, Carney was hundreds of kilometers away at a sprawling shipyard on Goeje Island, touring South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean — one of the world’s most advanced submarine production facilities. Accompanied by South Korean Prime Minister Kim Mi-o and Defense Minister David McGuinty, Carney walked alongside the hull of the Jangyong-seon, a next-generation 3,600-ton submarine equipped with technologies rivaling those of Europe’s major defense powers.

Officially, the visit was framed as routine diplomacy. Unofficially, it marked the most significant strategic pivot in Canada’s defense posture in decades.

At the center of the shift is the Canadian Patrol Submarine Program, or CPSP, an initiative valued at more than $20 billion — a figure that analysts say could triple once maintenance, training, and long-term modernization are included. The program aims to replace Canada’s aging Victoria-class fleet with state-of-the-art vessels capable of extended Arctic deployment and advanced surveillance.

Only two contenders remain: Korea’s Hanwha Ocean and Germany’s Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems. Both offer cutting-edge designs, but Hanwha holds a unique advantage — an emerging industrial partnership that could fundamentally reshape Canada’s defense ecosystem.

During the APEC Summit, Carney and Kim signed the first-ever Canada–South Korea Security and Defense Partnership Agreement, a framework that extends beyond submarines into cyber defense, industrial security, advanced simulation, and AI-integrated naval systems. Under its terms, roughly 40 percent of the submarine program’s value would be produced on Canadian soil, generating more than 10,000 high-skilled jobs and revitalizing domestic manufacturing hubs from Halifax to Vancouver.

Companies including BlackBerry, CAE, L3 Harris, and GasTops have already signed agreements with Hanwha, signaling a cross-Pacific collaboration that could shape Canada’s technological landscape for decades.

To some in Washington, the partnership reads as a strategic rebuke — or at the very least, a recalibration of priorities as Canada diversifies away from its single largest trading partner. Since the United States imposed a broad protection package in 2025, Canadian exports to the U.S. have fallen sharply, squeezing sectors such as steel, aluminum, and automotive manufacturing.

In Ottawa, the shift is framed not as defiance but as necessity.

“This is about sovereignty,” one senior official said on background. “We have relied on a single partner for too long. The world is changing, and we must change with it.”

Whether history judges the submarine program as a bold reinvention or a costly gamble remains uncertain. But as Carney watched cranes rise above the camouflaged hulls at Goeje Island, one thing was clear: Canada is preparing to chart a course it has not taken in generations — one not anchored to Washington, but aimed toward a broader, more independent future.