Donald Trump has just unleashed a new tariff threat targeting Canadian potash — and this time, the real target is not Ottawa, but America’s own farmers. Speaking at the White House, Trump warned he would impose “very severe tariffs” on potash imports from Canada, repeating a familiar argument: force the United States to produce domestically, achieve self-sufficiency, and break reliance on foreign suppliers. But behind that tough rhetoric lies a brutal economic reality the U.S. agricultural sector understands all too well: America cannot realistically replace Canadian potash, and Canada holds a decisive lever over the entire U.S. food supply chain.

Potash is the primary source of potassium — one of three essential nutrients crops need to survive, alongside nitrogen and phosphate. Without potash, yields collapse, crops fail, and food production grinds to a halt. The United States consumes more than five million tons of potash each year but produces less than ten percent of its own demand. Nearly 80 percent comes from Canada, primarily from Saskatchewan, home to the world’s largest, highest-quality, and lowest-cost potash reserves. This is not a policy issue. It is geology.

When Trump threatens to choke off this supply with tariffs, the first panic does not come from Canada — it comes from inside the United States. Agricultural groups immediately warn of soaring fertilizer costs. During Trump’s earlier tariff threats, potash prices spiked dramatically in a matter of weeks. Republican lawmakers from farm states such as Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska rushed to intervene, knowing that even small cost increases can wipe out farmers’ already-thin margins.

Trump argues that high tariffs will spark domestic production. But the reality is stark: the United States lacks sufficient high-quality potash deposits, and even if new mines were viable, developing them would take 10 to 15 years, billions of dollars, and lengthy environmental approvals. That means farmers would face higher costs — or fertilizer shortages — for more than a decade.

While Washington debates, Canada is quietly preparing for the worst. Canadian potash producers have been expanding relationships across Europe, Asia, and Latin America — regions hungry for stable fertilizer supplies. New export infrastructure projects are underway, specifically designed to reduce dependence on the U.S. market. If tariffs make American buyers unprofitable, Canada has both the capacity and the alternatives to redirect supply permanently.

The danger for the United States runs even deeper. Outside of Canada, the only major potash exporters are Russia and Belarus. That leaves U.S. farmers with an alarming choice: pay sharply higher prices for Canadian potash or turn to suppliers tied to sanctioned authoritarian regimes. Any shift in that direction would push global prices higher and hand strategic leverage over food production to geopolitical rivals.

In response, the White House has announced tens of billions of dollars in farm subsidies — a familiar political bandage. But subsidies do not lower input costs, reopen lost export markets, or create long-term competitiveness. They simply delay the pain. When subsidies expire, farmers remain exposed to inflated fertilizer prices, shrinking export opportunities, and rising debt.

The potash crisis exposes a fundamental flaw in Trump’s approach to trade: treating every relationship as a zero-sum battle and every ally as an adversary to be pressured. In essential commodity markets, the dependent party does not hold leverage. Canada does not need the U.S. potash market to survive. U.S. agriculture, however, cannot function without Canadian potash.

By targeting potash, Trump is not strengthening America — he is triggering a chain reaction that leaves U.S. farmers trapped, global markets restructuring away from the United States, and Washington’s strategic position weakened. This is not just another tariff dispute. It is a dangerous fracture in the foundation of America’s food security.