MOUNT POCONO, Pa. — As the holiday season approaches in late 2025, President Donald J. Trump took to the stage at a casino resort here, delivering a fiery defense of his economic policies amid mounting evidence of public discontent.
Dismissing widespread complaints about rising living costs as a Democratic “hoax” and “con job,” Mr. Trump insisted that the economy was thriving under his leadership, even as polls showed his approval ratings on the issue plunging to historic lows.
In a speech laced with familiar bravado, the president graded his economic performance an “A+ plus plus plus,” claiming unprecedented investments and rapid price reductions driven by energy policies. “Affordability is the greatest con,” he told the crowd, echoing sentiments he has repeated in interviews and on social media. He blamed Democrats for fabricating the narrative to gain an edge in the 2026 midterm elections, while asserting that he inherited “the worst inflation in history” from his predecessor, Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Yet, economic indicators and voter sentiment tell a different story. Inflation, which stood at about 3 percent year-over-year through September 2025, has remained stubbornly elevated in key areas like food and housing, contributing to a sense of financial strain for many Americans. Mr. Trump’s approval rating on the economy has sunk to 31 percent, according to a recent AP-NORC poll, marking the lowest point across both of his terms in office. Overall approval hovers around 42 percent, with even some of his staunchest supporters expressing disillusionment.
The president’s remarks come nearly a year into his second term, a period marked by aggressive trade policies that have drawn sharp criticism. In April, Mr. Trump declared “Liberation Day,” imposing broad tariffs — ranging from 10 to 60 percent — on imports from China and other nations, aimed at reshoring manufacturing and reducing trade deficits. While these measures have narrowed the trade gap in recent months, they have also fueled higher consumer prices, with economists estimating that 40 to 50 percent of the costs are passed on to households, adding roughly 0.4 to 0.5 percentage points to core inflation. Studies project that the tariffs could shave 0.23 percentage points off U.S. growth in 2025, potentially escalating to 0.62 points the following year.
Mr. Trump has frequently touted massive investment inflows, claiming figures as high as $22 trillion in commitments since January. Fact-checkers, however, have debunked these numbers, noting that the verifiable total is closer to $9.6 trillion, much of it consisting of non-binding pledges, routine trade announcements, and unmaterialized promises — including a dubious $1 trillion Saudi commitment roughly equivalent to that nation’s entire GDP. Federal data and administration reports confirm that actual investments fall far short of the president’s assertions.
Voter frustration is palpable, particularly among working-class families who formed the backbone of Mr. Trump’s electoral coalition. In interviews, some expressed betrayal over unfulfilled promises to lower costs. “I’m very let down,” said one three-time Trump voter, citing skyrocketing daycare and food expenses that have forced reliance on credit cards. Polls indicate that nearly 60 percent of Americans believe the president portrays prices and inflation more favorably than reality warrants.
The administration’s response has often shifted blame to media coverage or lingering effects from the Biden era, while promoting domestic production through tariffs. White House officials argue that these policies will yield long-term benefits, such as higher-quality American-made goods, even if they mean paying “a dollar or two more.” Critics counter that rebuilding supply chains requires decades, not months, and point to the Republican Party’s historical role in offshoring manufacturing.
Energy production, a cornerstone of Mr. Trump’s economic pitch, has indeed reached records, with U.S. crude oil output hitting new highs in 2025 — a trend that began under Mr. Biden and continued amid deregulation. Lower gasoline prices have provided some relief, but broader affordability issues persist.
Politically, the disconnect has proven costly. In November’s off-year elections, Democrats capitalized on economic anxieties to secure sweeping victories in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City, flipping seats and outperforming expectations in races that Republicans anticipated would be competitive. These results echo Democratic gains at the start of Mr. Trump’s first term, signaling potential vulnerabilities for Republicans in 2026.
As Mr. Trump doubles down on his narrative, the gap between official optimism and public experience widens, raising questions about the sustainability of his approach. With midterm campaigns ramping up, the affordability debate — hoax or not — is poised to dominate the political landscape.
