WASHINGTON — Speaker Mike Johnson entered the new year already presiding over a narrow and uneasy House Republican majority. But a string of recent developments — including a surprisingly tight special election in Tennessee, escalating internal criticism, and a rising wave of planned retirements — has pushed his speakership into one of its most precarious stretches yet.
The latest strain emerged after Tuesday night’s special election in Tennessee’s 3rd Congressional District, a reliably conservative seat that former President Donald J. T.r.u.m.p carried by more than 20 points in 2020. While Republicans ultimately held the seat, their margin shrank to single digits. Within hours, lawmakers and strategists privately described the outcome as an unmistakable warning sign for a party increasingly anxious about its political trajectory.
For some House Republicans, the results validated a prediction shared anonymously with Politico earlier in the week: that a narrow win could leave the conference “unhinged.” By Wednesday morning, that assessment appeared less hyperbolic than many initially assumed.
Representative Elise Stefanik of New York, a member of House Republican leadership and one of T.r.u.m.p’s most prominent allies, publicly questioned Johnson’s effectiveness in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “He certainly wouldn’t have the votes to be speaker if there was a vote,” she said, a remark that underscored how rapidly tensions have resurfaced inside the conference.
The backlash reflects a broader discomfort among Republicans who find themselves navigating two politically hazardous forces at once: a shrinking majority and an increasingly chaotic presidential campaign season centered around T.r.u.m.p. Lawmakers frustrated with the former president’s influence — but unwilling to confront him directly — have instead turned their ire toward Johnson, whose leadership style they describe as passive and reactive during a period demanding clarity and strategy.
Yet Johnson is not viewed merely as collateral damage. His critics argue that he has failed to articulate coherent legislative priorities, particularly on health care and cost-of-living concerns that are sharply affecting voters across both red and blue states. Over the past several months, House Republicans have struggled to advance basic policy initiatives; Congress has repeatedly lurched toward funding deadlines; and legislative momentum on major issues has been virtually nonexistent.
Economic anxieties remain central to voter frustration. Inflation has eased from its peak, but families continue to confront high costs for housing, energy, groceries, and especially health care — an area where Republicans have long promised reforms but have yet to release a comprehensive plan. In interviews, several GOP members expressed private weariness with Johnson’s messaging on health care, which they view as a repetition of talking points that date back more than a decade.
That lack of direction has contributed to an exodus unprecedented in recent cycles. Twenty-three House Republicans have already announced plans to leave Congress at the end of the term, and additional departures are expected in the coming weeks, according to reporting from Puck News. Many of the lawmakers leaving are doing so voluntarily, but several have cited burnout, frustration with internal party dynamics, or skepticism that the House majority can be retained in November.
“People don’t walk away from a functioning operation,” one longtime GOP strategist said. “They walk away when they feel they can no longer do their jobs.”
Complicating matters for Johnson, a recent resurfaced interview featuring the speaker attempting to explain differences between “waffle” and “spaghetti” brains — a metaphor rooted in gender stereotypes — drew criticism from both Democrats and some conservatives, who argued that the remarks felt out of touch during a moment when families are struggling with rising costs. While such episodes may appear minor in isolation, they have compounded a broader narrative that Johnson is failing to match the seriousness of the challenges facing voters.
The White House has seized on the disarray, framing Republican divisions as evidence that T.r.u.m.p’s influence continues to destabilize the party. Democratic strategists have highlighted the Tennessee results as a sign of voter fatigue with extremism and a potential warning for Republicans in other competitive districts.
Privately, several GOP lawmakers say they see little chance of organized efforts to remove Johnson, noting the practical difficulties of replacing a second speaker in the same congressional session. But the underlying distrust remains, particularly among members who worry that the party’s alignment with T.r.u.m.p has alienated moderate and suburban voters.
For now, Johnson is attempting to project stability. In recent Fox News interviews, he has insisted that Republicans are “the party working every day to fix healthcare” and that a package of cost-lowering proposals will surface in the coming weeks, though he did not provide specifics. The comments echoed previous assurances delivered by Republican leaders since the Affordable Care Act’s passage in 2010, many of which never materialized into legislation.
As Congress returns from recess, Johnson faces simultaneous challenges: stabilizing his conference, regaining momentum on core policy issues, and navigating the political gravitational pull of T.r.u.m.p, whose looming presence continues to shape — and complicate — every strategic decision. Whether the speaker can withstand these combined pressures remains uncertain, but the unease within his party is growing harder to dismiss.
