House Speaker Mike Johnson Faces Mounting Turmoil as GOP Fractures Deepen

House Speaker Mike Johnson is entering what may be the most precarious moment of his speakership as a cascade of political setbacks, internal rebellions, and emerging retirements within the GOP threaten to destabilize his already fragile hold on power. After weeks of bruising legislative battles, revelations from Capitol Hill insiders suggest Johnson may be facing a near-inevitable collapse of support — one that could cost him his position as early as next year.

Johnson’s difficulties began compounding after the historic government shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, which unfolded under his leadership. That crisis culminated in a stunning blow when a bipartisan discharge petition forced the release of the highly-publicized Epstein files, directly overriding Johnson’s authority. The move was widely seen as a major humiliation and signaled a growing willingness among House members to circumvent the Speaker entirely.

This week, Johnson appeared to secure a victory with the House’s passage of a sweeping $900 billion defense authorization bill, a cornerstone of national security policy. The bill includes several priorities aligned with President Trump, such as the authorization of active-duty troops at the southern border and the elimination of diversity initiatives within the military. It also provides a pay raise for service members — a popular component among both parties.

But buried inside the bill are provisions that stand in direct conflict with Trump’s foreign-policy aims. These include measures limiting troop withdrawal from Europe and the likelihood of new military aid to Ukraine. Even more notably, the bill mandates that the Pentagon release unedited footage of controversial maritime strikes, with penalties attached for noncompliance — a move that could invite broader scrutiny of the administration’s actions abroad.

Behind the scenes, Johnson only secured enough votes by making a series of sensitive, individualized promises to far-right members of his caucus. According to reporting from Axios, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, among others, extracted explicit commitments on halting NGO funding to the Taliban and securing future votes on banning central bank digital currency. These promises came with a warning: failure to deliver could result not only in legislative sabotage but a push to remove Johnson from the speakership altogether.

The fragility of Johnson’s position was underscored by a recent interview in Vox with Leanne Caldwell, Washington correspondent for Puck News. Caldwell reported that Johnson is “almost certain” to lose the speakership within the coming year, citing widespread dissatisfaction within his caucus and growing fears about the GOP’s electoral trajectory. She also revealed that, beyond the 23 Republicans already announcing retirement, an additional 20 are expected to step down — a devastating figure for a party holding only a narrow majority.

Retirements introduce vulnerability even in traditionally safe districts, particularly when primaries elevate extreme or inexperienced candidates. Combined with ongoing gerrymandering disputes across multiple states, the GOP now faces a political landscape where Democrats could plausibly flip dozens of seats.

If that happens, Johnson’s speakership — and perhaps his political career — could be on borrowed time.