JUST IN: CANADA–INDIA ENERGY DEAL BYPASSES TRUMP — $3B URANIUM TALKS SIGNAL STRATEGIC SHIFT

Canada has quietly opened a new front in global energy diplomacy after Prime Minister Mark Carney arrived in Mumbai and greenlit advanced talks on a 10-year uranium supply agreement with India valued at roughly $3 billion. The negotiations, led alongside Saskatchewan officials, would see Canadian uranium shipped directly to India beginning in 2026—without U.S. involvement—underscoring a deliberate push to reduce Canada’s economic exposure to Washington at a time of rising tariff threats from Donald Trump.

At the center of the talks is Cameco, headquartered in Saskatchewan and one of the world’s largest uranium suppliers. The proposed contract would replace a far smaller 2015 agreement and reflects India’s accelerating nuclear ambitions. New Delhi plans to expand nuclear capacity more than tenfold by 2047, a target that requires long-term, reliable fuel supplies. Canadian uranium—among the highest grade globally—offers the consistency India needs to commit billions to reactor construction over the coming decades.

For India, the deal is about energy security. Coal still generates roughly 70% of its electricity, while domestic uranium production falls far short of future demand. Securing Canadian supply reduces reliance on politically sensitive sources such as Russia and Kazakhstan and supports India’s transition toward cleaner, baseload power. Nuclear energy is central to powering industrial growth, data centers, and urbanization while meeting climate commitments—making long-duration fuel contracts strategically essential.

For Canada, the implications are equally significant. Roughly three-quarters of Canadian exports currently flow to the United States, leaving Ottawa vulnerable to sudden tariff escalation or political pressure. By locking in a multi-billion-dollar uranium deal with India, Canada signals it has credible alternatives. The revenue, jobs, and investment tied to Saskatchewan’s uranium sector would no longer depend on U.S. market access, strengthening Canada’s negotiating position ahead of future North American trade reviews.

The timing is not accidental. As Trump intensifies rhetoric on tariffs and economic leverage, Carney’s government is accelerating trade diversification across the Indo-Pacific. India—now the world’s fastest-growing major economy—offers scale, demand, and strategic alignment as a fellow middle power seeking independence from great-power coercion. Energy cooperation is expected to expand beyond uranium into crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and critical minerals, laying the groundwork for a broader Canada–India energy corridor.

Taken together, the Mumbai talks represent more than a commodity contract. They mark a structural shift in Canada’s foreign economic strategy—from dependence to optionality. By committing strategic resources to long-term partners outside the U.S. orbit, Canada is signaling that economic pressure will accelerate diversification, not prevent it. If finalized, the $3B uranium deal will stand as one of the clearest examples yet of how middle powers are reshaping global trade architecture in an era of uncertainty.