Five demands. Five refusals. And a trade chessboard where Canada is holding more power than Washington expected.
Donald Trump did not intend to strengthen Canada’s position in North American trade negotiations.
But that is exactly what he did.
When the United States formally laid out five non-negotiable demands as conditions for extending the continent’s most important trade agreement, the Trump administration believed it was tightening the screws on Ottawa.
Instead, it exposed just how deeply the United States depends on Canada.
And Mark Carney noticed.
Within 24 hours, Canada rejected every single demand. Not one. Not two. All five.
That refusal was not stubbornness. It was strategy.
Because each demand Washington made revealed something it desperately needs.
The Five Demands That Changed the Power Balance
United States Trade Representative Jameson Greer stood before Congress and did something unusual: he published a clear, public list of conditions Canada must accept for the agreement to be extended another 16 years.
No leaks. No speculation. Just demands.
1. Dairy: A Door That Is Legally Closed
Washington wants expanded access to Canada’s dairy market, calling Canada’s supply management system unfair and protectionist. American dairy exports above quota face tariffs between 200% and 298%.
Carney’s response was immediate and definitive.
Supply management is not on the table.
Not politically. Not economically. Not legally.
Canada passed legislation in June permanently locking in the system. Carney answered the question in French, sending a clear signal to Quebec, where dairy is both economically vital and politically untouchable.
The message was simple:
You cannot negotiate something that is already law.
2. Digital Media: Cultural Sovereignty vs Silicon Valley
The United States wants Canada to dismantle the Online Streaming Act and the Online News Act, which require platforms like Netflix, YouTube, Spotify, and Meta to invest in Canadian content and compensate Canadian publishers.
Greer called the laws discriminatory.
Canada called them necessary.
Without these rules, American platforms would dominate the market entirely, erasing Canadian journalism and culture. Carney has shown zero willingness to compromise because doing so would mean surrendering cultural sovereignty to Silicon Valley.
This is not a trade issue for Canada.
It is an identity issue.
3. Alcohol Bans: Cause and Effect Washington Ignores
Several Canadian provinces banned American beer and wine in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs.
Washington now demands those bans be lifted.
But here is what the demand ignores:
The bans exist because the tariffs exist.
Remove the tariffs, the bans disappear.
Demanding Canada lift them while keeping U.S. tariffs in place is not negotiation. It is punishment.
Carney has no incentive to accept that logic.
4. Government Procurement: Hypocrisy in Plain Sight
Greer criticized Canadian provinces for prioritizing domestic suppliers in government procurement.
The irony is glaring.
The United States does the same thing constantly through Buy American policies, military procurement rules, and domestic sourcing mandates across federal contracts.
Demanding Canada abandon policies Washington aggressively uses itself is not a trade grievance.
It is hypocrisy dressed up as diplomacy.
5. Energy Policy: The Dependence Washington Won’t Admit
Greer raised concerns about Alberta’s electricity grid allegedly favoring in-province power over U.S. imports.
Alberta rejected the claim outright.
But the bigger story runs in the opposite direction.
The United States imports 3.8 million barrels of Canadian crude oil every day.
Roughly 23% of U.S. refinery feedstock comes from Canada.
Gulf Coast refineries are engineered specifically for Canadian heavy crude.
New England depends on Canadian electricity during winter peaks.
This is not a one-way relationship.
It is an irreplaceable one.
Why Saying “No” Made Canada Stronger
Conventional analysis assumes refusing five demands weakens Canada’s position.
That assumption is wrong.
Each demand is an admission.
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Dairy demands mean U.S. producers need Canadian consumers.
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Digital demands mean U.S. tech companies are losing billions under Canadian law.
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Procurement demands mean Canadian policies are keeping money at home.
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Energy complaints mask U.S. dependence.
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Silence on autos reveals fear.
Because the auto sector—the most critical industry in North American trade—was notably absent from the demand list.
And that silence says everything.
The Auto Industry: Canada’s Hidden Leverage
North American auto manufacturing is deeply integrated. Components cross the border multiple times before a single vehicle is finished.
American automakers testified before Congress that the agreement is essential.
The American Automotive Policy Council called it worth tens of billions of dollars annually.
General Motors confirmed supply chains are too complex to unwind.
If the agreement collapses, U.S. automakers suffer first.
Carney knows this.
That is why autos were not on the list.
The China Card That Changed the Equation
Carney’s targeted trade arrangement with China was not a free trade deal.
It was surgical.
Canola. EVs. Agriculture.
Reciprocal tariff relief. Legal under the agreement.
The real impact was psychological.
It proved Canada has options.
Trump initially praised the move, then reversed course and threatened 100% tariffs. But the damage was done. Canadian exporters saw alternatives. American negotiators saw leverage slipping.
Dependency is power.
And Canada reduced it.
Three Paths Forward—and None Favor Washington
Starting in July, three outcomes are possible:
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Extend the agreement for 16 years
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Withdraw entirely
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Trigger annual reviews until 2036
Annual reviews mean a decade of uncertainty.
And uncertainty terrifies American industry.
Nearly 150 U.S. industry leaders told Congress the agreement must continue. Steel. Autos. Energy. Agriculture. Tech.
They are now watching Canada refuse everything—and quietly hoping Washington backs down.
The Davos Moment That Reframed the Fight
At the World Economic Forum, Carney warned that nations who accept economic subordination become vulnerable.
“If you are not at the table,” he said, “you are on the menu.”
European leaders applauded.
Journalists called it historic.
Trump’s Treasury Secretary dismissed it as “globalist virtue signaling.”
But the speech wasn’t aimed at Washington.
It was aimed at building coalitions.
The Bottom Line
Trump’s demand list was meant to intimidate Canada.
Instead, it revealed dependence.
The United States needs Canadian energy.
Canadian auto parts.
Canadian minerals.
Canadian stability.
Mark Carney did not weaken Canada by refusing everything.
He exposed the reality that Washington hoped to keep hidden.
Five demands.
Five refusals.
And a trade review that may mark the beginning of the end of unquestioned American economic dominance in North America.
