Trump’s Grip on GOP Slips Amid Post-Election Fractures, as Insiders Warn of ‘MAGA Crisis’ in Midterm Shadow

By Jonathan Weisman and Catie Edmondson Washington — Dec. 2, 2025

President Donald J. Trump, whose second term was launched on vows of unyielding party unity, confronted a stark reckoning on Monday as a cascade of off-year election defeats and internal rebellions laid bare deepening fissures within the Republican coalition he forged. With the House majority teetering after a string of losses in Virginia, New Jersey and Pennsylvania — and polls showing his approval languishing at 39 percent — insiders described a “full-blown MAGA crisis” erupting behind the scenes, fueled by donor flight, donor defections and a growing chorus of lawmakers breaking ranks on everything from tariffs to Ukraine aid. Mr. Trump, ensconced at Mar-a-Lago amid a holiday weekend strategy huddle, lashed out on Truth Social, blaming “RINO saboteurs” for the “collapse,” but the panic was palpable: Aides leaked details of frantic calls to shore up the base, even as moderates plotted a post-Trump realignment that could redefine the G.O.P. for 2026 and beyond.

The unraveling accelerated over Thanksgiving, when preliminary results from Nov. 4’s patchwork of gubernatorial and legislative races confirmed a blue wave that flipped Virginia’s governorship to Democrat Abigail Spanberger by 12 points and handed New Jersey to a progressive incumbent. In Pennsylvania, Democrats surged in state House seats, while Georgia saw a special election upset in a suburban Atlanta district long held by Republicans. Exit polls from Edison Research painted a grim picture: G.O.P. turnout cratered 15 percent from 2024 levels without Mr. Trump on the ballot, with independents citing the 43-day government shutdown — the longest in history — as a top grievance. “Trump wasn’t on the ballot, and the shutdown killed us,” Mr. Trump posted late Friday, attributing the rout to “pollsters” on Fox News, a line he echoed in a Wednesday morning call with Senate Republicans. Yet the finger-pointing masked deeper dread: Without the president’s coattails, the MAGA machine sputtered, exposing a coalition overly reliant on his personal magnetism.

Behind closed doors, the crisis has devolved into a scramble for survival. At a closed G.O.P. luncheon Monday, House Speaker Mike Johnson fielded heated demands from freshmen in swing districts, who vented about being “chained to Trump’s chaos” amid donor pullbacks totaling $1.2 billion since the shutdown’s end in mid-November. “We’re hemorrhaging cash and seats — this isn’t sustainable,” one Midwestern lawmaker said, speaking anonymously to avoid primary threats. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., huddled with moderates like Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Mitt Romney of Utah, floating a “de-Trumpification” strategy to reclaim suburban voters alienated by the administration’s hard-line stances on immigration and spending cuts. “The base loves him, but the math doesn’t — we need autonomy, or 2026 is a bloodbath,” Mr. Romney told reporters, his words a rare public fracture from the party line.

Mr. Trump’s response was vintage fury. In a Sunday evening Truth Social thread viewed over 25 million times, he railed: “GOP WIMPS collapsing RIGHT WHEN WE NEED STRENGTH — RINOs like McConnell and his puppets SABOTAGING our WINNING! Epstein hoax, shutdown lies, tariff tantrums — it’s a DEEP STATE COUP! MAGA will RISE STRONGER — primaries coming for traitors!” The posts amplified a Newsweek analysis of the party’s “realignment matrix,” mapping fault lines between populist nationalists like Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida and institutional conservatives like Mr. Thune, with Mr. Trump’s inner circle — including Steve Bannon and Laura Loomer — wielding X as a megaphone to rally the base. Yet the vitriol backfired: A Politico poll released Monday showed 55 percent of Trump voters identifying as MAGA, but 38 percent rejecting the label — a “switchable” bloc now drifting toward centrists, with economic optimism souring amid tariff-induced price hikes on soybeans and steel.

The “MAGA crisis,” as one senior G.O.P. strategist termed it in a leaked memo, stems from a toxic brew: The shutdown’s human toll — furloughed federal workers, lapsed veterans’ benefits and a 20 percent spike in airport delays — eroded goodwill, while the Epstein files’ impending Dec. 20 release has revived scrutiny of Mr. Trump’s 1990s ties to the financier, alienating evangelical donors. “Affordability is killing us — groceries up 12 percent, and Trump’s praising H-1B visas? That’s anti-MAGA heresy,” the strategist wrote, echoing Fox host Laura Ingraham’s Monday interview where she grilled Mr. Trump on issuing 600,000 student visas to Chinese nationals. Town halls have turned toxic: In Ohio, Rep. Warren Davidson faced jeers from constituents over Ukraine aid caps, while Sen. J.D. Vance, the vice president, dodged questions on Medicaid cuts in Kentucky, prompting Steve Bannon to brand him a “squish” on his War Room podcast.

Power struggles have spilled into the open. Mr. Johnson, still reeling from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation over stalled Epstein declassifications, clashed with Freedom Caucus chair Andy Harris in a Monday caucus meeting, where hard-liners demanded a “motion to vacate” unless Mr. Trump walks back his Ukraine peace plan — a 28-point proposal leaked last week that cedes Crimea to Russia. “We’re not Putin’s pawns — this is surrender,” Mr. Harris thundered, per attendees. Moderates, led by Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, countered with a letter to Mr. Trump urging veto-proof $60 billion in uncut aid, signed by 25 members. “The base is fracturing — loyalty to Trump or to Reagan’s legacy?” Mr. Bacon said in an interview, his voice laced with exhaustion.

Democrats, sensing vulnerability, have weaponized the chaos. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., called an emergency news conference Monday, brandishing a calendar of “Trump’s flops”: the shutdown, off-year wipeouts and a Supreme Court deferral on his Copyright Office takeover. “MAGA’s melting down — from donor droughts to civil war. They need us more than ever for the basics,” Mr. Jeffries said, teasing discharge petitions for disaster aid and health care protections. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., scheduled a Wednesday vote on Ukraine funding, betting it could peel off enough Republicans to force a veto override and humiliate the White House.

The panic has reached Mar-a-Lago’s gilded halls. Aides described Mr. Trump, 79, pacing during a Sunday donor call, fuming over “betrayals” from Sens. Lindsey Graham and Mitt Romney, who publicly urged “restraint” on tariffs. “He’s losing the elite MAGA — Bannon’s screaming, Loomer’s unhinged, but the checks aren’t coming,” one official said anonymously. Polling from a G.O.P.-aligned firm, leaked to Axios, showed Mr. Trump’s internal approval at 58 percent — down from 72 percent in July — with “switchable” voters citing affordability and foreign policy as deal-breakers.

For the G.O.P., the timing is torturous: With term limits barring Mr. Trump from 2028, the party faces a succession scramble amid his lame-duck volatility. Historians like Julian Zelizer of Princeton liken it to the post-Nixon GOP’s wilderness years, when factionalism nearly shattered the coalition. “MAGA’s not collapsing yet — but without Trump’s spell, it’s just angry fragments,” Mr. Zelizer said. On X, #MagaCrisis exploded with 3.1 million mentions, from Bannon’s rants to moderates’ pleas for “post-Trump sanity.”

As December dawns, Mr. Trump floated a “unity rally” for next week, teasing primaries for “traitors.” But with the House on a razor’s edge and midterms looming, the meltdown isn’t abstract — it’s arithmetic. In a party Trump remade in his image, needing them most means watching them splinter. For Republicans, the crisis isn’t just MAGA’s; it’s existential.