Trump’s Standing Falters in North Carolina as State Leadership Charts a Different Course
North Carolina, a state long treated as a political battleground and economic bellwether, is offering an increasingly stark contrast between its state leadership and the federal government it must contend with. Recent polling suggests that President Donald Trump’s standing in the state has slipped markedly, even as Democratic Governor Josh Stein enjoys broad approval amid economic growth, disaster recovery struggles, and growing friction with Washington.
According to a new Elon University–YouGov poll, Mr. Trump’s net approval rating in North Carolina now stands at minus 16. A separate survey from High Point University places his net approval at minus 10. In both polls, Governor Stein’s approval is sharply higher — plus 22 in the YouGov survey and plus 30 in the High Point poll, a striking margin for a governor still early in his term. Democrats also hold a narrow advantage in a generic 2026 congressional ballot, suggesting potential downstream political consequences.
The numbers arrive against the backdrop of a recent presidential visit to the state that drew attention for reasons unrelated to policy. What was billed as an economic address featured lengthy remarks by Mr. Trump about his own cognitive health, including references to basic identification tests. The event was held before a relatively small audience, a notable change from the large rallies that once defined his political presence in the state.
North Carolina’s challenges, however, are far from abstract. Western parts of the state are still recovering from the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene, which struck more than a year ago, killing 108 people and inflicting an estimated $60 billion in damage. Historically, disasters of that scale have prompted large supplemental federal appropriations. Thus far, North Carolina has received roughly $6 billion — about 11 percent of estimated losses — largely from funds appropriated under the Biden administration.
State officials say the pace and scale of federal assistance have fallen short. The Stein administration has moved aggressively to deploy the resources it has, launching housing and water infrastructure programs faster than any state affected by a major hurricane in over a decade. But the governor has repeatedly called for additional federal appropriations, arguing that recovery at this scale requires partnership rather than delay.
Tensions escalated further in December when FEMA was ordered to reinstate $200 million in disaster mitigation funding that had been withdrawn from North Carolina. The state successfully challenged the decision, but the episode reinforced a growing perception among state leaders that federal actions were creating obstacles rather than support.
Despite these headwinds, North Carolina’s economy has continued to post strong numbers. CNBC recently named it the top state for business in 2025, marking the third time in four years it has held the title. The state has announced more than 35,000 new jobs and $24 billion in capital investment, much of it tied to clean energy, electric vehicles, and advanced manufacturing.
Governor Stein has credited long-term investments in education and innovation — many dating back to former Governor Jim Hunt — for creating a workforce attractive to global companies. “We’re building the economy of the future,” he said, while cautioning that federal budget cuts, tariffs, and disaster recovery delays could undermine that progress.
Health care has emerged as another flash point. The looming expiration of Affordable Care Act subsidies threatens to raise premiums sharply for nearly one million North Carolinians. State estimates suggest that as many as 150,000 residents could lose coverage altogether, while hundreds of thousands more would see premiums double or worse. For individuals like Nancy Weaver, a North Carolina resident who credits the subsidies with giving her access to lifesaving preventive care, the prospect is destabilizing.
Immigration enforcement has also fueled controversy. Federal operations in Mecklenburg County and elsewhere have drawn criticism for tactics state officials describe as indiscriminate and destabilizing. According to data cited by the governor’s office, roughly three-quarters of those detained nationwide in recent months had no criminal convictions. Community leaders say the operations have sown fear among workers and families while disrupting local economies.
Against this backdrop, Mr. Trump’s declaration that “every state run by a Democrat is a failure” has resonated poorly in a state that appears, by several measures, to be outperforming national trends. North Carolina’s experience underscores the complexity of modern federalism: a state advancing economically while increasingly at odds with the federal government meant to support it in moments of crisis.
For voters, the contrast is becoming harder to ignore. Poll numbers may fluctuate, but the underlying question in North Carolina appears to be settling into focus: whether resilience at the state level can continue to offset uncertainty — and, at times, resistance — from Washington.
