Trump’s Tariff Threat on Canadian Potash Risks Crippling U.S. Farmers

WASHINGTON — President Donald J. Trump’s renewed threat of “very severe tariffs” on Canadian potash — a critical fertilizer component — has alarmed American farmers and industry experts, who warn it could drive up costs, reduce yields, and exacerbate the agricultural sector’s struggles amid falling incomes and lost export markets.

Potash, rich in potassium essential for crop health, is heavily imported by the U.S., with Canada supplying about 79 percent of the 5.3 million tons used annually. Domestic production covers only 7-8 percent, leaving farmers with few alternatives. Canada’s Saskatchewan province, home to vast high-quality deposits, dominates global supply alongside Russia and Belarus.

Mr. Trump, speaking at a White House roundtable last week, argued tariffs would spur U.S. self-sufficiency. “You will be making your own fertilizer very soon,” he said. Yet experts say expanding domestic mining faces geological limits, environmental hurdles, and timelines of 10-15 years — rendering near-term substitution impossible.

Farm groups reacted swiftly. The American Soybean Association and Fertilizer Institute cautioned that duties would inflate input costs, already farmers’ largest expense at over 35 percent for corn and wheat. “This would be counterproductive,” said Veronica Nigh, chief economist at the Fertilizer Institute, noting protected domestic output would raise prices without matching Canadian efficiency.

Canadian producers, led by Nutrien and Mosaic, have begun exploring alternatives in Europe and Asia. “If U.S. markets become unstable, we’ll redirect supply,” one executive said anonymously. Such shifts could lock in long-term contracts abroad, leaving U.S. refiners — and farmers — facing shortages even if tariffs later ease.

The threat compounds existing woes. Net farm income is projected to fall over $30 billion in 2026, per the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, due to low crop prices and declining subsidies. Trump’s earlier tariffs closed key markets like China for soybeans, contributing to three consecutive loss years — the longest in decades.

Republican lawmakers from farm states, including Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, have urged exemptions, recalling backlash to 2019 duties that prompted $23 billion in aid. A proposed $12 billion package offers temporary relief but not structural fixes.

Geopolitically, alternatives like Russia (sanctioned over Ukraine) or Belarus pose risks. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe noted Americans would “much rather” source from Canada than adversaries. Yet Trump’s approach risks handing leverage to Moscow while alienating a stable ally.

As planting season nears, farmers face stark choices: absorb higher costs, cut fertilizer use risking yields, or scale back operations. “We’re already on thin margins,” said an Iowa corn grower. Higher expenses could pass to consumers via elevated food prices.

The episode highlights Trump’s tariff strategy’s contradictions: aiming for independence while deepening reliance on imports he targets. With Canada diversifying — bolstered by infrastructure like the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion — U.S. agriculture’s vulnerability grows.

For farmers who backed Trump expecting protection, the potash threat underscores a painful irony: policies meant to strengthen America may instead weaken its heartland.