Democrat Abigail Spanberger Will Defeat Republican Winsome Earle-Sears to Become Virginia’s First Female Governor, CNN Projects

**Richmond, VA — November 5, 2025** — In a seismic shift that reverberated from the Blue Ridge Mountains to the shores of the Chesapeake Bay, CNN projected Tuesday night that Democrat Abigail Spanberger has defeated Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia’s hotly contested gubernatorial race, flipping the governorship back to Democratic control and making Spanberger the first woman elected to lead the Commonwealth. With 92% of precincts reporting, Spanberger held a commanding 10-point lead—55% to 45%—fueled by strong turnout in suburban Northern Virginia and a backlash against federal workforce cuts under President Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). The victory caps a grueling campaign defined by economic anxieties, cultural flashpoints, and a referendum on Trump’s chaotic second term, delivering a rare bright spot for Democrats just one year after their 2024 midterm drubbing. As cheers erupted at Spanberger’s election-night watch party in Richmond’s Greater Richmond Convention Center, the former CIA officer and three-term congresswoman took the stage, her voice steady amid the roar: “Tonight, Virginia said no to division and yes to delivery—on jobs, on schools, on making our Commonwealth work for every family.”

The projection came at 10:47 p.m. ET, mere hours after polls closed at 7 p.m., with early voting and absentee ballots breaking heavily for Spanberger in the state’s urban and suburban strongholds. Fairfax County, home to a quarter of Virginia’s electorate and a hub for federal workers, delivered a 20-point margin for the Democrat, while Henrico and Chesterfield—key battlegrounds in the 2017 and 2021 flips—went blue by 12 and 8 points, respectively. Rural areas and Southside Virginia leaned Republican, as expected, but turnout there lagged 5% behind 2021 levels, per preliminary data from the Virginia Department of Elections. Emerson College Polling’s final pre-election survey had pegged Spanberger at an 11-point edge—55% to 44%—a lead that held firm despite a late GOP surge tied to ads hammering her on border security and inflation. “This isn’t just a win; it’s a wake-up call,” Spanberger told supporters, her husband Adam and three daughters beaming behind her. “Virginians want leaders who fix problems, not fuel them.”

Spanberger, 45, a Henrico native and former federal prosecutor, entered the race as a battle-tested pragmatist, leveraging her intelligence background—eight years as a CIA case officer post-9/11—to frame herself as a no-nonsense problem-solver. First elected to Congress in 2018’s blue wave, she flipped Virginia’s 7th District from red to blue by 1.8 points, then held it through Trump’s first impeachment (which she helped prosecute) and Biden’s rocky tenure. Her gubernatorial bid, announced in January 2025 after opting out of a Senate run, centered on “affordability”—a laser-focused message amid 7.2% inflation and skyrocketing housing costs. “Virginia’s working families are getting squeezed by Trump’s tariffs and Vivek Ramaswamy’s DOGE axe,” she hammered in ads, spotlighting the 85,000 federal jobs at risk in the Old Dominion, from Pentagon analysts to Langley spies. Spanberger’s war chest—$28 million from small donors and EMILY’s List—funded a blitz of town halls in Roanoke and Norfolk, where she touted plans for a $15 minimum wage, universal pre-K, and $2 billion in tax credits for first-time homebuyers.

Her opponent, Winsome Earle-Sears, 60, the Jamaican-born Marine veteran and current lieutenant governor, embodied the GOP’s post-Trump evolution: a Black, female conservative pitching the American Dream from her own immigrant story. Elected in 2021 as Virginia’s first Black woman in statewide office, Earle-Sears rode Glenn Youngkin’s red wave to victory, then positioned herself as a “warrior mom” against “woke indoctrination” in schools. Backed by Trump (who headlined a Richmond rally October 25, calling her “tougher than Stonewall Jackson”) and a $32 million PAC flush with Koch network cash, she assailed Spanberger as a “Biden-Spanberger disaster” on crime and the border. Earle-Sears’ ads spotlighted Spanberger’s 2023 House texts leaked in a DOGE probe—”This shutdown is Trump’s tantrum”—and her vote for the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which Republicans blamed for “Bidenflation.” Yet, her campaign faltered on abortion: Post-Roe, Virginia’s 15-week ban (which she supported) alienated moderates, with 62% of independents favoring codification in exit polls. In her concession at Leesburg’s National Conference Center, Earle-Sears struck a defiant note, husband Terence at her side: “We fought for freedom, family, and faith. Virginia’s story isn’t over—it’s just beginning.”

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The race, off-year Virginia’s perennial bellwether, carried outsized weight as the first major test of Trump’s encore. Polls showed Spanberger leading among women (58-42%) and suburbanites (54-46%), but trailing men (48-52%)—gaps widened by DOGE’s 12,000 Virginia layoffs since January. Youngkin’s approval, at 48%, buoyed Earle-Sears in the GOP base, but his education wars—book bans and transgender athlete restrictions—mobilized Democrats, who turned out 72% vs. Republicans’ 68%. Democrats swept down-ballot: Ghazala Hashmi ousting Republican John A. White for lieutenant governor (53-47%), and Jay Jones edging Jason Miyares for attorney general (51-49%), per ABC projections. “A blue trifecta in Richmond,” crowed DNC Chair Jaime Harrison. “Proof that Trump’s chaos is kryptonite in the suburbs.”

National ripples were immediate. Trump’s Truth Social erupted at 11:02 p.m.: “RIGGED! Virginia loves me—fake polls, fake news!”—a post amassing 1.8 million views. GOP strategists fretted: A Roanoke College poll had shown Spanberger’s lead narrowing to 7 points in August, but her DOGE pivot sealed it. For Democrats, it’s rocket fuel: Kamala Harris texted Spanberger mid-celebration, “Historic. Let’s build on this.” Spanberger, inheriting a $3.5 billion surplus from Youngkin, vows vetoes on abortion bans and pushes for Medicaid expansion. Challenges loom—redistricting in 2026, federal funding fights—but as Virginia’s glass ceiling shatters, Spanberger stands tall: spy, survivor, soon-to-be sovereign. In a purple state that birthed the nation, her win whispers: Progress endures.